The Enterprise Blog

Newt Gingrich

Jobs Saved vs. Jobs Created

By Newt Gingrich

November 6, 2009, 5:55 pm

On Friday, we learned that the unemployment figures rose by 558,000 in October. This follows President Obama’s announcement that the White House saved or created 1 million jobs with the stimulus.

So who is telling the truth? The problem is that there is no economic model to calculate “jobs saved.”

AEI fellow Allan Meltzer said, “One can search economic textbooks forever without finding a concept called ‘jobs saved.’ It doesn’t exist for good reason: How can anyone know that his or her job has been saved?”

There is no way of knowing whether a firm that completed a stimulus-funded project would have been without work in the alternative.

We also have to question what will happen to those workers once the government funding is gone. Since February, the month the stimulus bill was passed, 3.2 million people have lost their jobs. How many more people will have to lose their jobs before President Obama and the White House realize that jobs saved is a lot less important than jobs created? Read more in my column with Vince Haley in today’s Forbes.

Andrew Smarick

U.S. Jobs Down, Education Jobs Up

By Andrew Smarick

November 6, 2009, 5:53 pm

The news of unemployment’s unexpectedly large jump to 10.3 percent has me shaking my head in sadness and frustration with millions of other Americans. But, as I look deeper into the numbers, it also has me scratching my head in confusion.

In total, 190,000 jobs were lost in September, with big cuts in construction, manufacturing, retail sales, leisure, and transportation. But at the same time, nearly 11,000 jobs were created in education.

Of course, I’m happy that more people have found jobs in at least this industry, but this is hard to explain given some other developments. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) has pumped billions of dollars into our schools this year to fill budget gaps. In fact, a recent document from the White House reported that more than half of the jobs created or saved by the stimulus so far were in education.

Various reports suggested that these education jobs were of the “saved” variety. That is, states and districts were planning to cut education jobs but then decided not to when funds started rolling in from the feds. This sense seemed to be substantiated by state and district claims that, while they appreciated this funding, it was insufficient. There have been lots of reports of furlough days, reduced bus routes, cut sports programs, across-the-board reductions, and so forth. Take for instance Hawaii’s recent decision to cut 17 days off this year’s school calendar.

So if all of these activities are getting cut and states and districts are asking for more funds, how were they able to create more than 10,000 additional jobs?

A benefit-of-the-doubt answer is that these are actually just restored jobs. So for example, maybe districts cut 50,000 positions earlier this year when things were at their bleakest, and now that ARRA funds are flowing, they are able to hire back a portion of these employees.

The more cynical explanation is that some places are treating America’s education system as a jobs program. Knowing that so many people are out of work, these systems might be cutting non-personnel line items and creating new jobs with the freed up funds. That wouldn’t necessarily be so good for our students.

I hope it’s the first answer. But all of the evidence showing that our school systems have used virtually their entire stimulus allotment to date on jobs instead of reform has me wondering.

A final note: when ARRA funding runs out and school systems are forced to again rely primarily on state and local resources, these job gains could disappear very quickly.

Nick Schulz

The Vegetarian’s Delusion

By Nick Schulz

November 6, 2009, 11:14 am

The attacks on industrial farming continue. The latest is from Jonathan Safran Foer, whose new book is getting tons of attention; it was excerpted in the New York Times magazine and is reviewed in this week’s New Yorker. Most of these attacks don’t wrestle with the arguments Blake Hurst advanced in his essay “The Omnivore’s Delusion” and until they do it will be difficult to take them too seriously. An even greater challenge than Blake’s compelling case, however, might be this: Wal-Mart (and industrial-scale farming) are making it possible for a family of modest means with two kids and four grandparents to gather during a recession and eat a whole Thanksgiving dinner… for 20 bucks.

Jay Richards

Arthur Brooks on Earned Happiness

By Jay Richards

November 6, 2009, 11:14 am

AEI President Arthur Brooks was the keynote speaker at this year’s Acton Institute annual dinner. I was sorry to miss the event, so I was glad to see David Bahnsen’s reference and short summary of the speech (h/t to John Couretas), who was able to get to Grand Rapids. Brooks highlighted the importance of earned success to happiness (the Left tends to forget the “earned” part.) Since I don’t have the transcript to compare Bahnsen’s summary, I’ll say this is Bahnsen-on-Brooks:

[Brooks] carefully walked us through the overwhelming evidence that it is “earned success” that makes people happy. Society is overloaded with people who have received money via inheritance or the lottery, and sociological and psychological studies have repeatedly affirmed this rather fascinating tenet: People with money who did not earn it are overwhelmingly more likely to say that they are unhappy than people who earned it. Obviously, regardless of the source of one’s prosperity, happiness cannot be bought. As people of faith, we know that the human condition is such that mere material comfort cannot bring about resolution in what tries men’s souls. But “earned success”—the stimulation of human dignity that achievement and accomplishment represent—does bring about happiness (at least in a statistically significant way).

We are besieged daily with the class warfarism of the mainstream media and liberal elites who decry the greed and materialism of free market capitalism. The materialists in our society are not believers in free enterprise who are focused on “earned success”; the materialists are the leftists who dare to suggest that the mere redistribution of money is going to make people happy. That, my friends, is base materialism. It is shallow. It is dangerous. And it is destructive. A worldview that pursues earned success is empirically proven to provide true happiness, for only that worldview respects human dignity.

Good stuff.

Andrew Biggs

Kristof’s Silly Statistics

By Andrew Biggs

November 5, 2009, 12:47 pm

Nicholas Kristof, writing in the New York Times, provides a veritable assault of statistics designed to show the weakness of the U.S. healthcare system and the strengths of a single-payer approach. The United States has higher infant mortality than countries with universal healthcare, he says. American life expectancy is 37th in the world, tied with Kuwait and Chile. The U.S. health system ranks last in terms of “preventable deaths.” All of this is arguable, as we’ll see, but let’s assume for a moment that Kristof is correct.

Kristof then goes on to say:

There is one American health statistic that is strikingly above average: life expectancy for Americans who have already reached the age of 65. At that point, they can expect to live longer than the average in industrialized countries. That’s because Americans above age 65 actually have universal healthcare coverage: Medicare. Suddenly, a diverse population with pockets of poverty is no longer such a drawback.

Is America’s better life expectancy at 65 necessarily because retirees have universal coverage through Medicare? Or might it be—again assuming all of Kristof’s horrific health statistics are meaningful—that only the very healthiest Americans survive to 65 after running the gauntlet of our survival-of-the-fittest healthcare system? This is survivorship bias in its most literal sense. Kristof here makes an elementary error of logic.

Moreover, we do know, for instance, that infant mortality has a lot more to do with social factors such as low birth weight than it does with healthcare systems. We also know that life expectancies are affected by eating and smoking habits, violent crime, automobile deaths, and other factors besides healthcare. Robert Ohsfeldt and John Schneider adjusted life expectancy statistics to account for deaths relating to these kinds of factors, finding that, instead of the middling ranking Kristof reports, the United States has the highest life expectancy in the world. Likewise, economists June and Dave O’Neill of Baruch College, in a comparison of the U.S. and Canadian health systems, concluded that “that the efficacy of healthcare systems cannot be usefully evaluated by comparisons of infant mortality and life expectancy.”

The University of Pennsylvania’s Samuel Preston and Jessica Ho also looked at these issues, finding:

Life expectancy in the United States fares poorly in international comparisons, primarily because of high mortality rates above age 50. Its low ranking is often blamed on a poor performance by the healthcare system rather than on behavioral or social factors. This paper presents evidence on the relative performance of the U.S. healthcare system using death avoidance as the sole criterion. We find that, by standards of OECD countries, the U.S. does well in terms of screening for cancer, survival rates from cancer, survival rates after heart attacks and strokes, and medication of individuals with high levels of blood pressure or cholesterol. We consider in greater depth mortality from prostate cancer and breast cancer, diseases for which effective methods of identification and treatment have been developed and where behavioral factors do not play a dominant role. We show that the U.S. has had significantly faster declines in mortality from these two diseases than comparison countries. We conclude that the low longevity ranking of the United States is not likely to be a result of a poorly functioning healthcare system.

Others at the American Enterprise Institute and elsewhere are better qualified than I to assess all of Kristof’s claims on the quality of U.S. healthcare. But given the errors of logic and statistics so far, I wouldn’t take his column all that seriously.

A Permanent Stimulus?

By Amy Roden and Alex Brill

November 5, 2009, 12:30 pm

We recently wrote that much of the stimulus bill will become a permanent addition to the annual deficit; more than $140 billion a year in our estimation. As it turns out, the effort to make the stimulus bill permanent has already started.

Yesterday the Senate unanimously passed legislation that extends and expands three policies from the stimulus bill that were intended to be temporary: unemployment benefits, the home buyer tax credit, and net operating loss (NOL) carryback for small businesses.

In addition, at his confirmation hearing to become Assistant  Secretary of the Treasury for tax policy, Michael Mundaca said that the Build America Bond program from the stimulus bill is “an “extraordinarily successful program … too successful to allow to go away.”

And finally, the politically popular effort to send seniors needless and costly checks for $250 next year is also an extension of a provision established by the stimulus bill.

Bottom line: not only has the stimulus bill failed to help the economy, it shows no sign of ever going away.

Andrew Smarick

Caution! Legislative Provisions Less Promising Than They Appear

By Andrew Smarick

November 5, 2009, 12:25 pm

A huge challenge for the Race to the Top (RTT) program came into stark relief yesterday, but it doesn’t seem like anyone has noticed.

Marking the anniversary of his election, President Obama, with Education Secretary Arne Duncan in tow, visited Wisconsin yesterday to tout this $4.35 billion program. In a very long speech, the president emphasized his administration’s intentions to use the RTT to compel states to get rid of their “data firewalls.” He explained the term and why he’s opposed to them:

It basically says that you can’t factor in the performance of students when you’re evaluating teachers. That is not a good message in terms of accountability. So we said, if you’ve got one of those laws, if you want to compete for these grants you got to get rid of that law.

Secretary Duncan made clear in his Air Force One gaggle with reporters that they were delivering this message in Wisconsin because the state legislature is about to vote on a bill that would repeal the state’s firewall. The administration was there to call attention to the general issue and put some added pressure on legislators.

Many reformers are excited that states’ strong desires to get RTT grants are causing them to change their policies in valuable ways—with regard to firewalls, charter schools, and other matters. But I’ve been acting as part wet blanket and part broken record, repeating that there’s a big difference between changing a law and changing on-the-ground practices.

For example, a state may lift a charter cap, but if districts are the only authorizers and they remain hostile to charters, that policy change may not lead to any new schools.  Similarly, a state may pass a law allowing performance pay for teachers, but local collective bargaining agreements may prohibit compensation being based on anything other than graduate degrees and years of experience.

In the case of Wisconsin, these concerns came to life. According to a local paper, the legislation that precipitated the president’s visit, while allowing student test scores to be used in teacher evaluations, would still prohibit teachers from being disciplined or fired based on this information.

So if Wisconsin passes this law, many in the administration and education reform community will celebrate, “the firewall is down!” But because of the fine print, the new law will do nothing to help remove poor teachers from the classroom.

This is just another example of why those evaluating RTT applications must callously look past bold, shiny state promises and get deeply into the weeds. Unless the reviewers and the Department of Education’s leadership dig into these types of details, the amount of reform we actually see from the Race to the Top could be tragically disappointing.

In an August Wall Street Journal editorial, “What Happened to the ‘Depression’?: Despite the Rhetoric from Washington, We Were Never Close to 25% Unemployment,” American Enterprise Institute Visiting Scholar Allan Meltzer wrote:

Day after day, economists, politicians and journalists repeat the trope that the current recession is the worst since the Great Depression. Repetition may reinforce belief, but the comparison is greatly overstated and highly misleading. Anyone who knows even a bit about the Great Depression knows that this is false. The facts we face today are very different than the grim reality Americans confronted between 1929 and 1932.

Now that there is strong consensus among economists that the U.S. recession ended sometime in early summer, we can start making some comparisons between the Great Depression and what has been called the “Great Recession.”

unrate

The chart above displays annual unemployment rates from 1930 to 2009, and shows that we haven’t even yet reached the average unemployment rate of 9.7 percent during the recession in 1982, a year when the monthly jobless rate reached 10.8 percent in November and December, a full point above the October 9.8 percent rate. The current consensus forecast is for U.S. unemployment to reach 10 percent by December, but fall to 9.4 percent by December of next year. Therefore, it’s possible we won’t even experience the peak level of unemployment that existed in 1982 on either an annual or monthly basis. Even if we did, it still wouldn’t be anywhere close to the 25 percent peak level of unemployment in 1932, or the full decade of double-digit unemployment rates in the 1930s that averaged 17.1 percent and never fell below 11 percent.

gdp

The second chart above shows annual real GDP growth (BEA data here) from: 1) 1930 to 1932 (-25.7 percent cumulative decline) and 2) 2007 to 2010, assuming a) fourth-quarter growth this year of 3.5 percent and no revisions to the third-quarter estimate of 3.5 percent, and b) real GDP growth next year of 2.5 percent (the WSJ consensus forecast).

Under those fairly realistic assumptions, there would be a decline in real GDP during the “Great Recession” in only one year (-2.4 percent in 2009), preceded by one year of below average growth (0.40 percent in 2008), and followed by a return to average growth of 2.8 percent next year (2010).

If the assumptions above hold, the comparisons of recent economic conditions to the Great Depression would be exaggerated and overstated. After all, the three annual consecutive declines in real GDP of -8.62 percent in 1930, -6.50 percent in 1931, and -13.1 percent in 1932 were far, far worse than a single one-year decline in output of -2.4 percent in 2009. As Meltzer pointed out in the Wall Street Journal, it would be much more accurate and realistic to compare the 2008–2009 recession to the severe and lengthy recessions of 1973–1975 and 1981–1982, instead of making hyperbolic comparisons to the Great Depression.

Finally, it should be pointed out that even if it is determined by economists that the Great Recession really has been the worst since the 1930s, that is much different than saying that the recent downturn was as bad as the Great Depression. Meltzer suggested that there were political motivations to claim we were about to enter Great Depression II to justify government intervention, but the recent data on unemployment and output make it very clear that we were never even anywhere close to the economic conditions of the 1930s.

Nick Schulz

India vs. China

By Nick Schulz

November 5, 2009, 11:05 am

On a lot of important measures of prosperity, India tops China these days. See my column in Mumbai’s MINT newspaper for more.

Jay Richards

Pro-Life Dems and Healthcare Reform

By Jay Richards

November 5, 2009, 11:04 am

I’ve got to give credit where credit’s due. And when it comes to keeping objections to abortion coverage in federal healthcare bills in the spotlight, a group of principled pro-life Democrats led by Rep. Bart Stupak of Michigan has played an increasingly important role.

President Obama and Democratic leaders clearly recognize that taxpayer-funded abortion may be a bridge too far even for moderate pro-choicers, so you’d think they would try to take the issue off the table. Instead, they’ve consistently, um, not spoken the truth about abortion funding in the various bills, apparently counting on media complicity and public indifference or ignorance of the matter.

This doesn’t look to be a winning strategy. In fact, continuing opposition from pro-life Democratic legislators could contribute to the failure of the House bill. Nancy Pelosi et al. are no doubt counting heads now to prevent that, but at the moment, it looks like a real possibility.

But, aside from the voting counting in the House chamber, I don’t think Pelosi et al. realize how much this issue is muting a large segment of religious Americans who might otherwise be vocal supporters of their efforts. In fact, a hypothetical orthodox Catholic could favor every other aspect of the House bill, and still actively oppose it because of abortion coverage. I’m not implying, of course, that abortion coverage is the only reason Catholics could have for opposing the bill. But most of the other objections would be based on prudential judgments rather than on non-negotiable moral principles. (See Sam Gregg’s terrific piece on these points.)

Is taxpayer funding for abortion so important to the Democratic leadership that they are willing to risk the passage of their landmark legislation to maintain it? That’s not only a strange hierarchy of values; it doesn’t seem like good politics.

Karlyn Bowman

McDonnell and Women

By Karlyn Bowman

November 4, 2009, 4:12 pm

One of the prominent lines of attack used by Democrat Creigh Deeds in the Virginia gubernatorial contest involved a graduate dissertation Republican candidate Bob McDonnell wrote in 1989 in which he suggested that working women were detrimental to the family. McDonnell was called “anti-women,” and Democrats tried to make the election a referendum on the so-called “women’s issues.” As the campaign progressed, however, polls showed that the attack wasn’t working. And, now we have the results from the voters themselves.  Women supported McDonnell over Deeds, by a margin of 54 to 46 percent. Men voted for McDonnell in larger numbers (62 percent for him, 37 percent for Deeds) in a pattern we have seen in almost every major election in our politics since 1980, with men being more likely to support Republican candidates than women. Or, if you prefer, women being more Democratic. But perhaps more striking than the overall numbers were the results among working women. Twenty-eight percent of women checked the exit poll box indicating that they worked full time for pay.  McDonnell won them, too, by 51 to 49 percent.

Here’s an interesting post about Larry Summers inserting himself into the political action over net neutrality.

White House senior adviser Susan Crawford resigned last week to little fanfare, but some White House insiders say her leaving may reveal growing tensions inside the Obama Administration about just how radical the administration has become in developing policies.

Crawford, who was one of the leading voices during the Obama transition period, and then stayed on as Obama’s key adviser on technology and communications policy, was credited with putting in place the general policy overlays in those subject areas that guided many of the Administration’s hiring and appointments to the Federal Communications Commission and the Commerce Department. She was a strong proponent of Net Neutrality regulations, which would allow the government to regulate the Internet, and in her role sitting on the president’s councils on economic policy, she supported strong government interventions and controls of private business.

But White House sources say that she ran afoul of senior White House economics adviser Larry Summers, who claimed he and other senior Obama officials were unaware of how radical the draft Net Neutrality regulations were when they were initially internally circulated to Obama administration officials several weeks ago. “All of sudden Larry is getting calls from CEOs, Wall Street folks he talks to, Republicans and Democrats, asking him what the Administration is doing with the policies, and he isn’t sure what they’re talking about,” says one White House aide. “He felt blind-sided, and Susan was one of those people who heard about it.” In the end, the proposed regulations were slightly moderated from the original language FCC chairman Julius Genachowski, a Crawford ally, circulated.

The White House has a full plate these days, and it’s possible Summers felt it made little sense in the middle of a recession to begin regulating one of the sectors of the economy that has been doing pretty well lately.

Gary Schmitt

Weak, Carteresque Weak

By Gary Schmitt

November 4, 2009, 11:09 am

This morning, the White House released a statement by President Obama on Iran, marking the 30th anniversary of the Iranian seizure of the American embassy and the hostage-taking of its American personnel. It was “a crisis” that would last for 444 days and would become a major reason the Carter administration was ultimately drummed out of office after one term. President Carter was seen as being weak and the American public decidedly rejected that weakness in the election of Ronald Reagan in 1980.

It is worth quoting the heart of the Obama statement:

This event helped set the United States and Iran on a path of sustained suspicion, mistrust, and confrontation. I have made it clear that the United States of America wants to move beyond this past, and seeks a relationship with the Islamic Republic of Iran based upon mutual interests and mutual respect. We do not interfere in Iran’s internal affairs. We have condemned terrorist attacks against Iran. We have recognized Iran’s international right to peaceful nuclear power. We have demonstrated our willingness to take confidence-building steps along with others in the international community. We have accepted a proposal by the International Atomic Energy Agency to meet Iran’s request for assistance in meeting the medical needs of its people. We have made clear that if Iran lives up to the obligations that every nation has, it will have a path to a more prosperous and productive relationship with the international community.

Iran must choose. We have heard for 30 years what the Iranian government is against; the question, now, is what kind of future it is for. The American people have great respect for the people of Iran and their rich history. The world continues to bear witness to their powerful calls for justice, and their courageous pursuit of universal rights. It is time for the Iranian government to decide whether it wants to focus on the past, or whether it will make the choices that will open the door to greater opportunity, prosperity, and justice for its people.

Weak. Obama’s statement makes the hostage-taking seem as though it arose out of the blue, was something of an accident of history, and that it led to “suspicion, mistrust, and confrontation” on both the American and Iranian side. Well of course it did on the U.S. side but the animus toward “the Great Satan” on the part of Tehran’s new Islamic Republic was part and parcel of its DNA from the start. The hostage crisis was not the cause of 30 years of confrontation but a product of existing anti-American animus. To truly “move beyond” the hostage crisis would require a fundamental change in Iran itself.

But note in that connection how the stolen election in Iran this past summer is passed over and the pledge “to not interfere in Iran’s internal affairs” put forward as though a pledge. Again, weak.

At best—and this would require a very charitable reading—the statement suggests that the door might just be closing for Iran to reach an agreement with Washington. (“It is time for the Iranian government to decide.”) But coming on the heels of the Iranian rejection of the latest offer on its nuclear program, and coming on the heels of the trials of the Iranians who protested the stolen election, and coming on the heels of Iran’s continuing to supply insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan with weapons that kill U.S. and allied soldiers, the message Iran’s leaders will take away is that the Obama administration is still desperate to cut a deal. Weak, Carteresque weak.

Substance notwithstanding (to be sure, it’s awful), the updated healthcare reform bill being pushed by the House Democratic leadership contains inflammatory language that makes no pretense of objectivity or decorum. Here are two examples that appear early in the bill’s 1990 pages:

Section 101 calls for the immediate establishment of a federal high-risk pool to offer subsidized health insurance for uninsured people with pre-existing health conditions. It includes a subsection entitled (p. 20) “Protection Against Dumping Risks by Insurers.”  A dispassionate and decorous alternative would be: “Prevention Against Subsidized Rates Attracting Currently Insured People.”

Section 104 calls for immediate federal regulation of health insurance rate changes. It’s entitled (p. 31) “Sunshine on Price Gouging by Health Insurers.” A dispassionate and decorous alternative would be: “National Regulation of Health Insurers’ Rate Changes.”

If the issue of healthcare reform were not so serious, it would be difficult to take this stuff seriously. As it stands, the inclusion of such language in the House bill is, for lack of a better word, frightening.

The Vatican initiative to make it easier for Anglicans to join the Catholic Church (which I discussed here) seems to have hit a nerve among the rabid anti-Catholic crowd. First, there was the bizarre diatribe of über-atheist Richard Dawkins in The Washington Post (h/t to Bruce Chapman). Here’s how he starts:

What major institution most deserves the title of greatest force for evil in the world? In a field of stiff competition, the Roman Catholic Church is surely up there among the leaders.

He claims that the Vatican initiative will draw all the misogynists and homophobes still lurking the corridors of Anglicanism. I would not have expected less from Dawkins. But The Washington Post asked him for his opinion—and then duly printed it. Since when is Dawkins an expert on Catholic and Anglican relations?

Then there was this screed by ex-Catholic schoolgirl Maureen Dowd in the New York Times. Nominally a defense of nuns she thinks are unfairly treated, the piece hits so many anti-Catholic stereotypes that New York archbishop Timothy Dolan responded to it on his new blog. Yet, she can’t resist taking a swipe at a Vatican that is “welcoming extreme-right Anglicans into the Catholic Church—the ones who are disgruntled about female priests and openly gay bishops.”

I was pleased to see this significant Vatican initiative to Anglicans get front-page cover stories in the New York Times and Wall Street Journal, and figured left-wing Anglicans wouldn’t like it; but I didn’t anticipate such frothing at the mouth from the secularist Left. Why would they care? And yet, for some reason, it’s causing them metaphysical panic. Perhaps the Vatican must really be onto something.

Much has been made of the notion of over-the-horizon counter-terrorism operations against terrorists. After all, why fight on the ground when it is possible to concentrate in remote locations, leaping out whenever necessary to kill bad guys? My colleagues Fred Kagan and Tom Donnelly have written ably here and here about why such operations are not the key to victory in Afghanistan. But as the president searches for different approaches to the conflict formerly known as the Global War on Terror, there’s another option that hasn’t received the attention it deserves: Bear deployment. It’s green. It’s mean. It’s a killing machine.

The special election in New York’s 23rd congressional district produced a wild storyline—one that began well before Election Day. The candidacy of liberal Republican Dede Scozzafava spurred a challenger from the Right, Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman. After Scozzafava’s poll numbers slipped and put her a distant third in the three-way race, she dropped out and endorsed Democratic Party nominee Bill Owens for the seat. Some Republicans who had endorsed Scozzafava expressed great disappointment at this turnabout. House Minority Leader John Boehner said, “this lady [Scozzafava] clearly has an agenda that’s different that most Republicans”; Boehner then threw his support to Hoffman.

But what about absentee voters in NY-23? We will never know the exact number of voters who marked their ballot for Scozzafava and wanted to change their vote in light of later events. There is a lesson here not only for NY-23, but also for other states: the longer a state’s absentee and/or early voting period is, the more likely that the results will not reflect voters’ true views come Election Day. Lengthy periods of early voting allow more time for game-changing information to come to light, or for a candidate on the ballot to drop out of the race (as both John Edwards and Rudy Giuliani did just prior to Super Tuesday during last year’s presidential primary season).

New York State election law limits absentee voting to a greater degree than do many other states. New York requires that voters provide an excuse to vote absentee. As of October 2008, 28 states allowed no-excuse absentee voting, which tends to boost the percentage of people who choose to vote at times before Election Day. But the length of New York’s absentee voting period can create problems. According to the New York State Board of Elections, absentee ballots requests can be received by a voter’s county board of elections as early as 30 days prior to an election. American Enterprise Institute Research Fellow John Fortier discussed the potential problems of a long early voting period in his 2006 book Absentee and Early Voting: Trends, Promises, and Perils: “In addition to diminishing the civic character of a single election day, the ability to vote early may lead substantial numbers of voters to miss out on important information in the campaign.” A month-long space between the start of an absentee voting period and an election widens the opportunity for late campaign developments to change voters’ minds.

Because Scozzafava’s decision to drop out of the NY-23 special election occurred on the Saturday before Election Day, it was impossible for some absentee voters to take this turn of events into account before casting their votes. The NY-23 situation should give pause to any states that have or are seeking to implement long early voting periods. An absentee and/or early voting period of less than one week is probably not feasible, but a two-week period would be a happy compromise, increasing the likelihood that these voters’ choices match their true intentions when Election Day arrives.

Jennifer Marsico is a Jacobs Associate at the American Enterprise Institute.

Arnold Kling and I have a book coming out really soon. It’s not yet on sale but you can see the cover image here. In it we build on the research of William Lewis and point out that productivity gains in unsexy industries, such as retailing, can have dramatic effects across an economy. This chart from Foreign Policy (h/t Mark Perry) offers interesting anecdotal evidence in support of this view.

wm1

FP asks:

So what’s going on? Does the ability to buy giant bags of Froot Loops at cut-rate prices inspire economic growth? More likely, Wal-Mart is simply a smart, cautious investor. “Wal-Mart chooses to go places with a sizable middle class,” says Nelson Lichtenstein, a historian who just published a book on Wal-Mart’s rise. And Wal-Mart’s attention to middle-class growth could pay off for the company in the future.

As you will learn from our book, this is almost certainly not the whole story. Many big-box retailers are prohibited from entering markets by local and national regulations. When these regulations ease, it becomes possible to come in. This regulatory switch—one more conducive to dynamic efficiency that makes it possible to quickly adopt new technologies, new business models, and so on—leads to greater growth. Wal-Mart and other retailers are certainly not responsible for all of the subsequent growth once they enter these countries; but as entrepreneurial forces they are important drivers of innovation in markets once the policy mix permits them to enter.

For more on Wal-Mart see this terrific book on The Wal-Mart Revolution.

Nick Schulz

American.com Down But Not Out

By Nick Schulz

November 3, 2009, 11:50 am

American.com readers: We are aware that the main site is down and our tech gurus are working on fixing it. Thank you for your patience and we expect to be back shortly. In the meantime, the blog works just fine so keep checking in for posts throughout the day.

In recent times, it’s not often that the federal courts have shown much deference to either the executive branch or Congress when it comes to terrorism and national security. In cases such as Boumediene v. Bush (2008) and Hamdan v. Rumsfeld (2006), the court has exercised little judicial restraint in an area it once thought was, more often than not, the province of the political branches. So, when any of the federal courts show a bit of inter-branch comity, as the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit explicitly did yesterday in Arar v. Ashcroft, special note should be taken.

Maher Arar was a dual citizen of Syria and Canada. In 2002, while flying through New York’s Kennedy airport in transit from Tunisia to Canada, he was detained by immigration authorities and the FBI after Canadian intelligence had tipped them off that Arar had links to al Qaeda. Arar was then held for nearly two weeks of questioning, after which he was put on a plane to Jordan and then handed over to the Syrian government. While in Syrian hands, Arar was interrogated further and likely tortured. Upon being released into the custody of Canadian officials in late 2003, Arar then sued the responsible U.S. officials for damages, arguing that they had been complicit in his torture and had, in turn, violated the Torture Victim Protection Act of 1991.

Dismissing the applicability of the Torture Victim Protection Act, along with other elements of the suit, the court says that “it is clear from the face of the complaint that Arar explicitly targets the ‘policy’ of extraordinary rendition”—the apprehension and transfer of a person from one state to another. After observing that the U.S. government has been utilizing renditions for terrorist suspects since at least 1995, the majority opinion admits that the issues surrounding the policy are extraordinarily complex, involving intelligence, state-to-state relations, and an array of public safety judgments. It then concludes that these are matters “generally accepted” as falling within “the province and responsibility of the Executive” in the first instance and, absent congressional authorization, an area the courts should be “hesitant to intrude” on. “Absent clear congressional authorization, the judicial review of extraordinary rendition would offend the separation of powers and inhibit this country’s foreign policy.”

“None of this,” the court argues, means “that extraordinary rendition is or should be a favored policy choice.” But given the “competing obligations” of those involved in making such decisions, it should give the courts “pause” before expanding its writ into this area.

The court’s restraint in this instance is even more remarkable in light of the fact that it could well be that Arar was in fact wronged. A Canadian investigation of his case concluded that he was probably tortured and that the intelligence passed to the United States about him was not as certain as initially set forth. (In early 2008, the Canadian government issued an apology to Arar and provided some $10 million in compensation to him and his family.) Although the press reports that the United States still has Arar on its “watch list” and refuses to allow him in the country on the basis of other intelligence it believes is credible, it would have been easy enough for most modern jurists to devise some legal remedy in order to give Arar what many would perceive his just due, or to use the case to make new law when it comes to rendition itself—a notably noxious counterterrorist policy.

Of course, we may still reach that point if this case or a similar one were to be taken up by the Supreme Court. Given the 5-4 and 5-3 decisions in the cases mentioned above, no smart money would lay any bets down that the higher court will show the same restraint exhibited by the bench below it. But, at least for one day, let’s be pleased with a decision that acknowledges that the Constitution’s underlying theory of separation of powers is predicated on the view that each of the branches has relatively distinct responsibilities and functions. And that, when it comes to matters of national security, less court, more president and Congress, is probably a pretty good rule of thumb.

Jay Richards

Is Jim Wallis Morally Serious?

By Jay Richards

November 3, 2009, 10:53 am

Progressive evangelical Jim Wallis has a piece in the Huffington Post arguing that the Afghanistan “counter-insurgency versus counter-terrorism” debate limits the options. In its place, he proposes a “whole different approach.” And what is that? Here’s what he says:

We should know by now, and most of those on the ground in places like Afghanistan do, that what re-builds a broken nation; inspires confidence, trust, and hope among its people; and most effectively undermines terrorism is an old and proven idea—massive humanitarian assistance and sustainable economic development.

So in place of a purported false dilemma, Wallis offers another. After all, we already are working for positive humanitarian and economic ends in Afghanistan. Wallis’s piece provokes many obvious objections, but I’ll limit myself to just a couple.

Wallis criticizes former Vice President Dick Cheney (“Dick Cheney always wants to fight.”) for allegedly ignoring facts. But what facts—what evidence—does Wallis cite for his assertion that humanitarian assistance and sustainable economic development “most effectively undermines terrorism?” He says that effect is “proven,” so maybe he should give readers a reference so they can see the proof themselves. At the moment, the most relevant piece of evidence for reducing terrorist activity is the military surge in Iraq.

But that reality isn’t even an option for Wallis. He is functionally a pacifist; so anyone considering his advice should realize that he’s unlikely to weigh the respective costs and benefits of all the live options. Instead, he’s likely to propose anything other than military action, no matter how naïve and no matter how disastrous the results may be.

He proposes that “we should lead with development now, and only provide the security necessary to protect the strategic rebuilding of the country that is urgently needed—and that kind of security might better attract the international involvement we so desperately need in Afghanistan, even from Arab and Muslim countries.”

He apparently imagines some benign military activity called “providing security,” of which he approves, and which is fundamentally different from other military activity. What is that exactly? He seems to have missed the fact that at the moment, according to relevant experts like Gen. Stanley McChrystal, our military presence in Afghanistan is not large enough to ward off the murderous Taliban, protect civilians, or prevent serious military casualties. Those are security problems. And yet Wallis thinks that sending legions of civilian development workers into the zone will solve these problems? Frankly, I don’t think this is even morally serious. It illustrates why pacifism, while it might be an acceptable choice for an individual, doesn’t provide a useful moral framework for political leaders.

Of course, none of my comments here should be taken as a criticism of the good work of the development agencies Wallis mentions. My skepticism has to do with his attempt to use them as a replacement for the work of the military.

Unlike Virginia, where Republican Bob McDonnell will win a comfortable victory, the New Jersey governor’s race is close and hard to call. The bad news for Democrats is that the incumbent governor Jon Corzine is deeply unpopular. Polls show him consistently in the high 30 percent to low 40 percent mark when matched up against his opponents.

The bad news for Republicans is that a lackluster campaign by Republican nominees Chris Christie coupled with the candidacy of Chris Daggett, a Republican running as an independent, have made this race close.

The real key on Tuesday is what percentage of the vote Daggett gets. Corzine is never going to poll a majority of voters, and Daggett takes more votes from Christie and the opposition to Corzine than from the governor himself.

A few weeks ago, Daggett polled at 20 percent or near 20 percent in a couple of polls. Since then, his support in polls has dropped, although remains often over 10 percent. Daggett is simply not high enough in the polls for many potential supporters to cast their votes for him. Look for his support to fall a bit further on Election Day.

A simple guide to the outcome of the election focuses on Daggett. If Daggett gets 8 percent or less on Election Day, Christie should win. If he polls 12 percent or above, Corzine should win. If he polls somewhere in between 8 and 12 percent, the race is too close to call.

The Gallup editors Frank Newport, Jeffrey Jones, and Lydia Saad are among the best public opinion analysts in the country. They are meticulous in their descriptions, and they don’t go beyond the data. When the trio weighs in on a subject, as they did on healthcare last week, it is important to pay attention. Two points they make are especially interesting. First, they argue that opinion has been stable, but divided, all year. That’s true not only in Gallup’s polls, but in others as well. There has been very little movement, and only one or two of the dozens of polls I’ve reviewed in the past few months shows majority support. The stability this year is quite different from what we saw in the Clinton years, when opinion shifted against the plan. The reason for the stability this year: “partisanship is part of the answer.” Republicans and Democrats dug in early, and they aren’t moving.

Especially interesting was their description of the views of those without health insurance, admittedly a small group. “Fewer than half would advise their member of Congress to vote for new healthcare legislation,” the editors said, “while the rest either would advise their member to vote against it or are unsure.” Now that’s significant.

Andrew Smarick

No Reform Among ‘Saved’ Education Jobs

By Andrew Smarick

November 2, 2009, 1:12 pm

Late last week, the New York Times reported that the lion’s share of jobs attributable to the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) can be found in our public school systems.

Of the 640,239 jobs recipients claimed to have created or saved so far, officials said, more than half—325,000—were in education. Most were teachers’ jobs that states said were saved when stimulus money averted a need for layoffs.

This isn’t completely surprising. In more traditional “work-program” areas, where stimulus funding is designed to start moving dirt or expand an ongoing project, typically new jobs can only follow considerable advance planning and the successful management of tricky implementation issues. The education dollars, on the other hand, were as rudimentary as possible.

The feds merely sent tens of billions of dollars to states and school districts to help them fill in their existing budget holes. So for the most part these jobs aren’t new, and they aren’t contributing new or different things to our education system. These are the jobs that would’ve been there had the recession never happened. Now, this still raises some important concerns (as the looming “cliff problem” suggests), but if you’re primarily interested in unemployment rates, you’ll likely view this part of the ARRA as a success. (Along these lines, it’s worth nothing that the two major teacher union heads were in attendance at Vice President Biden’s announcement event.)

But getting reform out of these education funds will be as difficult as getting jobs was easy. No one yet has the perfect formula for fixing our schools, and there are lots of reasons to believe that even if they did, the law’s education reform programs will be rerouted toward jobs.

So here are two predictions. First, we’re extremely unlikely to see a similar White House event touting the reform successes of ARRA education funding. Second, if there is such an event, the evidence provided will be almost entirely of the “input” variety. That is, there will be much discussion of how much money was spent and which initiatives were launched. What will be missing are “outputs,” data showing that thanks to the stimulus, our school systems are different and better and our students are learning more.

The Other Reinhart

By The Editors

November 2, 2009, 11:00 am

Readers of these pages will be familiar with the work of AEIer Vincent Reinhart. Economics writer David Warsh thinks that another Reinhart, Carmen Reinhart, is probably the most distinguished female economist in the world. Carmen spoke at AEI recently about her important new book on financial crises.